The Crisis Management Centre of the State Chancellery, in accordance with its obligation under the National Security Law to develop and maintain a national risk assessment, has prepared the National Risk Catalogue.
The Catalogue includes 48 different types of threats, including natural, technological, cyber, human-induced, societal, and public health threats. It also describes several low-probability, high-impact threats, as well as emerging risks with future implications. Each threat is defined by a combination of three elements:
- a hazardous event, process, or threat;
- its potential occurrence (probability);
- the resulting consequences (impact).
The National Risk Catalogue also includes a risk tolerance matrix, which defines which risk levels Latvia considers acceptable and which require immediate action.
"I encourage everyone, including state and municipal institutions, critical infrastructure operators, non-governmental organisations, businesses, and the people of Latvia, to use this Catalogue as a practical tool in their work. Risks cannot be eliminated entirely, but they can be identified, understood, and prepared for," emphasizes Colonel Arvis Zīle, Head of the Crisis Management Centre.
In developing the Catalogue, experts from the Crisis Management Centre made extensive use of international experience, taking into account both the risk catalogues of other countries and their methodological frameworks, as well as national-level civil protection and disaster management planning documents, statistical analyses, and assessments.
The National Risk Catalogue is a nationwide risk assessment instrument designed to ensure the systematic identification, assessment, and analysis of risks and threats. Its purpose is to establish a unified, evidence-based foundation for strengthening national resilience, planning crisis management measures, and supporting decision-making to ensure the continuity of essential services under various threat scenarios. The development and implementation of the Catalogue is an inter-institutional process in which each participating authority has a clearly defined role, including the Crisis Management Centre, the State Fire and Rescue Service, sectoral ministries, and other stakeholders.